Treasure Valley Permit Velocity · Q1 2026
Single-family and multifamily permit counts across Ada and Canyon counties in Q1 2026, which cities are accelerating, and what permit velocity signals for absorption and basis risk in the back half of the year.
Summary
Permit velocity is the leading indicator that decides whether the back-half supply line clears the rent / cap-rate model we underwrote in Q4. This brief tracks Q1 2026 permit issuance against the prior four quarters and flags the cities where the slope changed.
Permit counts by city
Counts pulled from city portals (Boise, Meridian, Nampa, Caldwell, Kuna) and the Census Building Permits Survey for cross-check. All numbers are pending the ATTOM data pull described in Phase D0; pre-pull, the table below is empty by design.
SFR vs MF split
The split that matters for basis: SFR permit growth without matching lot supply pushes finished-lot pricing; MF growth above 200 units in any single submarket pulls forward the rent-comp curve.
Velocity vs prior periods
Year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter changes will be filled from the data layer. Velocity, not absolute count, is the underwriting variable.
What it means for acquisition basis
Methodology only at first publish: the section maps permit slope to a basis adjustment table. The table itself is added once the ATTOM trial backfill lands.
Sources
City of Boise permit portal · Meridian permit records · COMPASS regional data · Idaho Dept of Commerce · Census Building Permits Survey.