The Treasure Valley cap-rate outlook · 2026
Where caps are sitting today in Ada and Canyon counties, what is moving them, and what an operator should expect through the back half of 2026 across SFR rentals, multifamily 5–20, and value-add flips.
Summary
Cap rates are the cleanest read on whether the next deal works. This brief tracks where caps actually are in 2026 — not where surveys say they are — across the three Renew lanes: rentals, MF 5-20, and value-add flips.
Methodology
Caps are derived from ATTOM closed transactions and IDX-aggregated stats, segmented by property type and county. The number that matters is what closed in the last 90 days, not what listed.
Cap rates by segment
Numbers populate via the data-service pull (D5) once the ATTOM trial backfill lands. Methodology-only at first publish.
What is moving them
Debt cost (FRED MORTGAGE30US weekly), insurance reset cycles, and local inventory pressure. Section will lay out each driver and weight contributions to current cap movement.
What it means for acquisition basis
Going-in cap minus current debt cost is the underwriting margin. When that compresses below 100bps, deals stop working. The forecast scenarios will show when that happens under three rate paths.
Sources
ATTOM closed-sale data · FRED MORTGAGE30US · IDX Broker aggregate stats · Renew operator transactions.